Nevena Trnavčević
Damjan Bakić
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Geography, Serbia
DOI:
UDC: 314.117.018:316.344-054(497.11)
Published: August 2026
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Keywords: Ethnic fractionalization, ethnic diversity, Serbia, homogenization, ethnic fractionalization index
Abstract:
Research on the ethnic composition of population is gaining increasing importance in many countries, particularly in the context of immigration countries that often receive ethnically diverse populations. In contrast, countries facing negative demographic trends, such as emigration, low fertility rates, and advanced population ageing, frequently experience a decline in ethnic diversity and a shift toward ethnic homogenization. The analysis is based on census data used to calculate the Ethnic Fractionalization Index to identify current trends in ethnic diversity in Serbia. The results indicate that the population of Serbia is undergoing a reduction in ethnic diversity, reflecting a deepening process of ethnic homogenization due to unfavorable demographic processes. The significance of this study lies in its relevance for minority policy development and for a broader understanding of the position of minority communities within society, particularly in the context of long-term demographic change.
References:
Bielb, W.T., Reskin, B. F., Burawoy, M., & Hillsman, S. T. (2003). The Importance of Collecting Data and Doing Social Scientific Research on Race. American Sociological Association. Washington, DC: American Sociological Association.
Farkas, L. (2017). Analysis and comparative review of equality data collection practices in the European Union: Data Collection in the Field of Ethnicity. European Commission
Durkin J. T. (1998). Immigration, assimilation and growth. Journal of population economics, 11(2), 273–291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001480050069
Alesina, A., & La Ferrara, E. (2005). Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. XLIII, pp. 762–800
Birnir, J. K., & Waguespack, D. M. (2011). Ethnic inclusion and economic growth. Party Politics, 17(2), 243-260. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810391149
Lee, N. (2015). Migrant and ethnic diversity, cities and innovation: Firm effects or city effects?, Journal of Economic Geography, Volume 15, Issue 4, pp. 769–796, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu032
Bove, V., & Elia, L. (2017). Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth. World Development, Vol. 89, pp. 227–239 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.012
O’donnell, J. (2024). Neighborhood Trust, Cohesion, and Diversity: How Demographic Patterns and Processes Shape Their Relationships. Population and Development Review, Volume 50, Issue 3, pp. 753-789, https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12641
Akay, A., Constant, A., Giulietti, C., & Guzi, M. (2017). Ethnic diversity and well-being. Journal of Population Economics, 30, pp. 265–306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-016-0618-8
Lee, W. K. M. (2004). The economic marginality of ethnic minorities: an analysis of ethnic income inequality in Singapore. Asian Ethnicity, 5(1), pp. 27–41. https://doi.org/10.1080/1463136032000168880
de Soysa, I., & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2017). Does social diversity impede sound economic management? An empirical analysis, 1980-2012. Social science research, 62, pp. 272–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2016.08.012
Fish, M.S., & Brooks, R. S. (2004). Does diversity hurt democracy? Journal of Democracy, Volume 15, Issue 1, pp. 154-166.
Hooghe, M., Reeskens, T., Stolle, D., & Trappers, A. (2008). Ethnic Diversity and Generalized Trust in Europe: A Cross-National Multilevel Study. Comparative Political Studies, 42(2), pp. 198-223. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414008325286
Gerring, J., Hoffman, M., & Zarecki, D. (2018). The Diverse Effects of Diversity on Democracy. British Journal of Political Science, 48(2), pp. 283–314. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000712341600003X
Bates, R. H. (1974). Ethnic Competition and Modernization in Contemporary Africa. Comparative Political Studies, 6(4), pp. 457-484. https://doi.org/10.1177/001041407400600403
Elbadawi, I., & Sambanis, N. (2000). Why Are There So Many Civil Wars in Africa? Understanding and Preventing Violent Conflict. Journal of African Economies, Volume 9, Issue 3, pp. 244–269, https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/9.3.244
Gershman, B., & Rivera, D. (2018). Subnational diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a new dataset, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pp. 231-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.01.003
Trnavčević, N., Budović, A., Nikolić, T.,& Knežević, A. (2024). The analysis of the ethnic diversity changes in North Macedonia. in Proceedings of the VI Congress of Macedonian geographers with international participation, Skopje: Macedonian geographical society., pp. 149-159. https://doi.org/10.37658/MGD24149t
Trnavčević, N. (2024). Аnalysis of the national structure of Сerbia’s population – what do the data from the new 2022 census tell us? in Proceedings of the 6th Congress of Geographers of Serbia with International Participation “Quo vadis geographia?, Towards new geographical horizons“, book 1, Belgrade: University of Belgrade – Faculty of Geography, 289-297. https://doi.org/10.5937/KonGef24033T
Radovanović, S. (2005). Two centuries of census in Serbia. Demography, 2, pp. 33-43.
Knežević, A., & Radić, N. (2016). The Census Categorization of Ethnic Identity: Between Theoretical Comprehensions and Statistical Practice. Stanovnistvo, 54(2), pp. 59–81. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV161122010K
Trnavčević, N., & Knežević, A. (2023). The demographic approach to the quality of official ethnicity data in Serbia – a research proposal. Stanovnistvo, 61(1), pp. 17–33. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV220416004T
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., & Wacziarg, R. (2003) Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth, 8(2), pp. 155-194.
Fearon, J. D. (2003) Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country. Journal of Economic Growth, 8(2), pp. 195-222.
Djordjević, Lj. (2020). Legal Aspects of Processing of National Affiliation Data in Serbia. Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe, Vol 19, No 2, pp. 76-106
Garcia-Montalvo, J., & Reynal-Querol, M. (2002). Why ethnic fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth. UPF Economics and Business Working Paper No. 660 http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.394926
Garcia-Montalvo, J., & Reynal-Querol, M. (2005). Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars. American Economic Review, 95 (3), pp. 796–816.
Kolo, P. (2012). New approaches to the dynamics, measurement and economic implications of ethnic diversity. Peter Lang
Steele, L. G., Bostic, A., Lynch, S. M., & Abdelaaty, L. (2022). Measuring Ethnic Diversity. Annual review of sociology, 48(1), pp. 43–63. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-030420-015435
Koopmans, R., & Schaeffer, M. (2013). De-Composing Diversity: In-Group Size and Out-Group Entropy and Their Relationship to Neighbourhood Cohesion. Discussion Paper SP VI, WZB Berlin Social Science Center
Marson, M., Migheli, M., & Saccone, D. (2021). New evidence on the link between ethnic fractionalization and economic freedom. Economics of Governance, 22(3), 257-292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-021-00259-6
Momani, B., & Stirk, J. (2017). Diversity Dividend Canada’s Global Advantage. Centre for International Governance, Innovation and The Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation, Canada
Collier, P. (2001). Implications of ethnic diversity. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Anderson, C.J., & Paskeviciute, A. (2006). How Ethnic and Linguistic Heterogeneity Influence the Prospects for Civil Society: A Comparative Study of Citizenship Behavior. The Journal of Politics, 68, pp. 783 – 802.
Bleaney, M., & Dimico, A. (2017). Ethnic diversity and conflict. Journal of Institutional Economics, 13(2), pp. 357–378. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137416000369
Schaub, M. (2017). Second-order ethnic diversity: The spatial pattern of diversity, competition and cooperation in Africa. Political Geography, 59, pp. 103–116
Gisselquist, R. M., Leiderer, S., & Niño-Zarazúa, M., (2016). Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision in Zambia: Evidence of a Subnational “Diversity Dividend”, World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pp. 308-323 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.018
Snodgrass, D. (1995). Successful Economic Development in a Multi-ethnic Society: The Malaysian Case. Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University
Singh, P. (2011). We-ness and Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis of Social Development in Kerala, India. World Development, 39(2), pp. 282-293
Repkine, A. (2014). Ethnic diversity, political stability and productive efficiency: Empirical evidence from the african countries. South African Journal of Economics, 82(3), 315–333
Kapidžić, D. (2014). Multiethnic Democracy and Measurement of Ethnicity. Sarajevo Social Science Review, III, 1-2, pp. 25-51
Hysa, E. (2020). Impact of Cultural Diversity on Western Balkan Countries’ Performance. Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies, 7(1), 20–40. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejecs/292
Drazanova L. (2020). Introducing the Historical Index of Ethnic Fractionalization (HIEF) Dataset: Accounting for Longitudinal Changes in Ethnic Diversity. Journal of Open Humanities Data, 6: 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/johd.16
Knežević, A. (2017). Тhe Floating ethnic groups in demographic research – methodological issues, approaches and examples. Annales-Series Historia et Sociologia, 27(2), pp. 439-456. https://doi.org/10.19233/ASHS.2017.31
Janjetović, Z. (1997). Odlazak Vojvođanskih Švaba – proterivanje ili iseljavanje. Tokovi istorije, 3-4, 111-117. Belgrade
Mušović, E. (1981). Yugoslav Emigration to Turkey. Proceedings of the Ethnographic Institute, 12, pp. 65–75.
Vojković, G. (2025). Census of Population, Households and Dwellings 2022. Ethnocultural Portrait of Serbia. SORS