Hristina Ninevska1
Marija Ljakoska1
Petar Vasić2
1 Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Institute of Geography – North Macedonia
2 University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography – Serbia
DOI:
UDC: 331.101.264.2-053:303.71(497.7)”2002/2021”
Published: August 2026
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Keywords: Working-Age Population, Population Aging, Population Projections, North Macedonia
Abstract:
Future demographic trends need to be identified in order to understand, prepare for, and address their consequences on the future economic and overall development, particularly in the Republic of North Macedonia and its eight statistical regions. This paper analyzes past and projected changes in the working-age population, with a focus on population aging within the working-age cohorts (15–64). Population projections for North Macedonia and its regions were developed using the cohort-component model for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. The analysis focuses on the population aged 15–64 and compares these projections with census data from 2002 and 2021 to assess long-term changes and future trends. The results show a decline in the younger cohorts of the working-age population and an increase in the older cohorts, particularly in the East, Vardar, Pelagonia, Southeast and Northeastern regions, while regions such as Polog, Skopje and Southwest show the highest concentration in the middle-aged cohorts. At the national level, a comparison between the last census year and the final projection year of 2051 indicates a projected population decrease of 209,047 persons aged 15-64. The results point to pronounced working-age population aging in at least half of the regions. Regions that currently have larger younger cohorts are projected to shift toward higher concentrations in middle-aged groups. Overall population decline is expected to affect all sectors, increasing the risk of labor shortages. These trends suggest a growing need for policy responses.
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